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Economy at a Crossroads: We'll Be Lucky If Downturn Only as Bad as Japan's, FT's Wolf Says

Posted Feb 09, 2009 01:57pm EST by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession, Banking
The stimulus bill and latest bank bailout plan expected to be announced this week are obviously key to turning around the U.S. economy. But they're of even greater importance given the world economy is at such a critical juncture, says Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator for The Financial Times.

"There's no precise definition of a depression" but the global economy "looks incredibly bad - far beyond a normal recession," says Wolf, author of Fixing Global Finance. We "could have a very severe and prolonged recession."

Wolf, who is also a professor of economics at University of Nottingham, believes "it will be lucky" if the current downturn is only as bad as Japan's so-called lost decade. Unlike the U.S. today, Japan was able to count on a strong global economy to mitigate the affects of its burst bubble and struggling financial system. "There is no world economy to rescue the U.S.," he says. "Chances are [it will prove] much worse than Japan."

We discuss Wolf's recipe for avoiding this outcome in subsequent segments but he offers three major recommendations here:

  • Use government spending to boost short-term demand.
  • Aggressively restructure and recapitalize banks - and have central banks lend directly into the economy if need be.
  • Rebalance demand so countries with big surpluses (like China) increase consumption to help the global economy move away from its reliance on "massive" deficits in the U.S. and U.K.

109 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday February 09, 2009 02:05PM EST

How many of today's optimists are really just bagholders who got stuck with overpriced houses and stocks?

Cogitus
Cogitus - Monday February 09, 2009 02:06PM EST

One of the main reasons we are now in the mess we are in, is our exasperating inability to affix blame to those who are actually at fault. When the guilty dog goes unpunished, guess what that encourages. Partly this is due to today’s ultra-short attention span (itself partly due to the blizzard of media disinformation, today‘s news is tomorrow‘s old news), partly to our news being largely just gossip (what these or those people “said”) rather than actual facts, and partly due to the virtual anonymity of many high officials in the increasingly unknowing public mind. How can reasonable, responsible, concerned citizens fight back? Not with motives of meanness, invective, or for partisan reasons, but in the interests of the future of our country, our society, and ourselves? One way would be to begin affixing responsibility where it truly belongs and doing it in a way that it stays affixed, so that the guilty dogs cannot simply shrug it off. I just saw Barney Frank on Face the Nation, unabashedly doing his blustering best to pass the buck of his culpability for this mess, and in fact continuing on on the same path, having learned nothing and accepted no responsibility for his role, doing his best to turn this recession into a depression. Let’s start calling a spade a spade: this is really The Frank-Dodd Recession. Affix responsibility where it is due. The public record is clear, the evidence is both copious and compelling, and considerable media coverage has been devoted to it. If enough of us take this simple action, in our emails, posts, and comments, it will spread and stick … and maybe we won’t have to start calling it the Frank-Dodd Depression.

Steve
Steve - Monday February 09, 2009 02:12PM EST

How about using a small business model on the macro scale. Anytime your having to use your line of credit, like the US is doing now, breaking into the black becomes harder and harder. Yet, that is the proposal. Dip further and further into the "line of credit" to solve the problem. We are already robbing Peter to pay Paul. Poor business practice. But who am I, but a small business owner.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Monday February 09, 2009 02:12PM EST

well, with the way the government is growing maybe everyone can work for Uncle Sam... http://mwhodges.home.att.net/piechart.htm $2.6 billion debt in 1910 without a damn income tax and $11 trillion of debt in 2009 with a income tax......jus where wus the nincompoops get this....your better off today crap! Fruits and Trunips is all tat make up tat town...D. C.....Washington left after only 8 dang years...I can't blame my... Washington had been reelected unanimously in 1792. His decision not to seek a third term established a tradition that is now embedded in the 22d Amendment of the Constitution. In his Farewell Address of Sept. 17, 1796, he drew on the results of his varied experience, offering a guide for both present and future. He urged his compatriots to cherish the Union, support the public credit, be alert to the “insidious wiles of foreign influence,” respect the Constitution and the nation’s laws, abide by the results of elections, and eschew political parties of a sectional cast. Asserting that the United States and Europe had different interests, he declared that it “is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliances with any portion of the foreign world,” trusting to temporary alliances for emergencies. He also warned against indulging in either habitual favoritism or habitual hostility toward particular nations, lest such attitudes should provoke or involve the country in needless wars.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Monday February 09, 2009 02:13PM EST

BUY GOLD AND GUNS!!!

sportsmadness
sportsmadness - Monday February 09, 2009 02:15PM EST

WOW the geopolitcal situation might lead to WW III .... well I would not like to see that but given the Socialism developing here ..... I would not totally discount it. The HAVES versus the HAVE NOTS !!!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday February 09, 2009 02:16PM EST

People we NEED the STIMULUS PACKAGE! PEOPLE don't fall for big TAX BREAKS the REPUBLICANS want so much! As usual, every one looks out for themselves. And the REPUBLICANS and the RICH want tax breaks so they can **(CONTINUE)** to be **(RICH)**! The REPUBLICANS and the **(RICH)** always try to put a spin on TAXING the RICH, because it will be bad for BUSINESS. That's bull! They mean it is bad for their RICH pocket books. America don't fall for it!!!! The REPUBLICANS and the **(RICH)** ONLY take care of themselves!!! America don't fall for it!!!

Bigdgti
Bigdgti - Monday February 09, 2009 02:19PM EST

Pres Obama is meet the new Boss same as the Old. I am not hearing change I am hearing George bush running around screaming the sky is falling. Let us look at this crisis in a measured terms not panic that we have to fix it today. I predict if this spending bill passes as it now stands to look for the Republicans to make great gains in 2010. Thanks to the Democrates Pork barrel stimulus

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday February 09, 2009 02:19PM EST

Wolf is drinking Keynesian Kool-Aid -- spending and reflating DOES NOT help the economy restructure. Only time can allow for markets to clear at market prices. All together, now: MARKETS CLEAR!!!. The more money we spend trying to reflate the asset bubble, the longer it will take for the correction to finish. In the 1920-21 depression.....What? Never heard of it? That's because it only lasted a short time. Pres Harding made sure his commerce secretary, that rootin' tootin' interventionist Herbert Hoover, never got his big fat sweaty hands on our economy. Our economy needs to correct or restructure and the fastest way for that to happen is to allow prices to fall to market levels and we can all move on. Trying to reflate the bubble is a sick, perverse exercise in stupidity.

chubby
chubby - Monday February 09, 2009 02:20PM EST

I went to the mall on Sunday and had a hard time finding a parking place. My co-worker got back from a Florida Disney parks vacation yesterday and said the parks were crowded. Things are not great, and if you're laid off it really sucks. But life goes on--the doomsayers of 2009 are just as stupid as the bulls of 2008.

John
John - Monday February 09, 2009 02:22PM EST

Tech ticker? More like "bear" ticker. These guys have the most negatviely biased stories I've ever seen. Wasn't that the guy who said Amazon was going to $7,000 per share??? Just trying to reinvent himself I guess.

ThingsThatMakeYaGoHmmm
ThingsThatMakeYaGoHmmm - Monday February 09, 2009 02:24PM EST

The first line of this article: The stimulus bill and latest bank bailout plan expected to be announced this week are obviously key to turning around the U.S. economy. Really? This is your typical MSM manipulation. Stating something as though it was a proven fact. What Bullshit!

ANTHONY
ANTHONY - Monday February 09, 2009 02:28PM EST

WANT A BREAK?? COMMIT A CRIME,,FREE LAWYERS, 24 HOUR SECURITY, AND YOUR GVT, WILL SPEND AN EASY $ 60,000 A YEAR ON YOU.. KEEPING YOU "WHOLE"... WANT TO GET THE SHAFT???.INVEST, SAVE, BUY A HOME, PAY YOUR FED,STATE.COUNTY ,SCHOOL, EXCISE, SALES, LINE CHARGE, DISTRIBUTION CHARGE, 911 CHARGE, GENERATION CHARGE,, SOCIAL INSECURITY,, TOBACCO, GAS, UNEMPLOYMENT, "NONE OF WHICH GO DOWN".. PAY SOME ONE ELSES WAY FOR 50 YEARS, """"THEN PLEASE DIE""""

ThingsThatMakeYaGoHmmm
ThingsThatMakeYaGoHmmm - Monday February 09, 2009 02:30PM EST

Well Chubby, you nailed it. That certainly proves we are on the upswing, even though we lost 600,000 jobs last month.

john k
john k - Monday February 09, 2009 02:30PM EST

The people responsible for the economic mess should be in jail, politicians have to have term limits otherwise there is no end for them be owned BY THE BIG CORPORATIONS.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday February 09, 2009 02:31PM EST

Comments: 1. No matter how much US government spends, it won't be enough, considering another 5-6 million people will lose job before the end of 2009. 2. The only way to "Aggressively restructure and recapitalize banks" is to nationalize these banks, which will essentially terminate capitalism. 3. No matter what, Chinese people will NOT spend. Period. Over the past 15 years, US soly relied on "finacial innovations" (in other words: cheating/stealing) to boost its economy. Our economy was based on waste/over consumption. Open your closet, ask yourself a question: if I don't buy any clothes in two years, am I going to run out of supply? I bet 60% of Ameircan's would say "NO". Now, the game is over.

Kin
Kin - Monday February 09, 2009 02:36PM EST

stupid Socialism!

moonglow
moonglow - Monday February 09, 2009 02:38PM EST

hi, the econonmy needs a federal unemployment package for/all familys/ add mortgage payments included. lets pay them off us. gov. start now.

Scott
Scott - Monday February 09, 2009 02:39PM EST

I love all of these experts over the past xx months..... where were they xx years ago ? i didn't hear any of them screaming that the sky was falling...... Hindsight is 20/20 ..................... I guess few if any were smart enough to see this coming, or none of them had the balls to stand up and try to prevent it from happening. Maybe they're the ones who will profit by destrying so many of us middle class , tax paying sheep........baaaaaahhhhhhh bahhhhhhh

chango
chango - Monday February 09, 2009 02:40PM EST

We are broke. When the "stimulus" gets out there, we will see inflation take off.

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